MMA Fact or Fiction: UFC's Business Decline
It is time for another edition of Coors Light Cold Hard Facts (because Bud Light doesn't pay me). Whenst last we separated Fact (not actual facts) from Fiction (more predictions, really), it was to discuss cable and satellite providers' distaste for WWE Network. Your humble essayist is back, this time to discuss the business issue of the moment: UFC's declining pay-per-view and television numbers.
Fact or Fiction: UFC's pay-per-view decline will reverse itself this year
Fact.
Yes, there are fewer MMA fans than ever (at least since the boom). Yes, GSP is gone. Yes, Cain and Ronda are hurt. Yes, (about) 500k for Weidman/Ronda is unimpressive. But it's got to get better.
The first half of 2014 was about as ugly as it can get. UFC has had exactly one PPV main event in the marquee weight classes (Light Heavy and Heavy) this year, and it went head to head with LeBron and Kevin Durant in the playoffs. Ronda fought twice, which helped. Otherwise, it's been flyweights and bantamweights at the top of cards.
UFC fans have shown time and time again that (all charisma being equal) they prefer the big boys. Jones vs. Gus is coming. Cain vs. Werdum is coming. Weidman vs. Vitor might be coming. And Cormier vs. Jones might close out the year. Things will tick up on pay-per-view, at least a little.
Fact or Fiction: UFC will have a better 2015 than 2014
Fiction.
The problem is, they're still in a rut. UFC is not cool, and there's nothing cool on the horizon. Pop culture is pretty unforgiving and UFC is out. The Affliction types have been gone for a while, and now sports fans are finding it a grind.
Maybe the real question is, "will UFC get desperate?" Will they throw eight figures at GSP? Or let Chuck fight Chael? Or hold out marquee fighters from states withunfair strict drug testing? The press hasn't caught on to the notion that this is America's fastest shrinking sport. If they do, UFC may have to make a major move.
Fact or Fiction: UFC would be better off running fewer shows
Fiction.
The major move that MMA hardcores want is fewer shows. They say that it's too hard to keep up. That it doesn't feel special. That skipping the little shows eventually leads to skipping the big shows. B.S., I say.
UFC's problem isn't that they run too many shows. It's that they are expanding in the wrong way. Fight fans are fine with UFC running fifty shows a year. Hell, they're fine with a hundred fifty shows a year. The key is to keep eight to ten shows stacked like they used to be.
International Fight Week (or whatever it's called now) was a perfect example of UFC's mismanaged booking. The top five fights of the week looked like this:
Weidman vs. Machinda
Ronda vs. Tomata Canne
Chael vs. NSAC
Faber vs. Bruce Leroy
Sad BJ vs. Frankie the Finisher
That is a hell of a pay-per-view card. I'd buy it, and I haven't bought a UFC show in God knows how long. UFC 176 could've been saved with Lawler and Brown and Cerrone and McGregor. Demetrius Johnson might've drawn if he had Munoz and Bendo on the undercard. (OK, maybe not. Mighty Mouse will never draw.)
Whatever matchmaking they're doing now isn't working, and it's time for a change. Choose eight cards. Stack them with four (Fox) or five (PPV) fights and then book the rest of the shows. I'm fine with a Fox Fightpass 1 card every Wednesday and Sunday night from here 'til oblivion. Do it. Just stop messing with the big shows and stack those cards.
Fact or Fiction: TV ratings will recover as Fox Sports 1 matures
Fiction.
And this is why UFC should stack PPVs. FS1 is dead. Fox is a proud company led by smart people, but they are also practical. They tried to do ESPN. They can't do ESPN. They're gonna quit trying to do ESPN some time soon.
Fox Sports 1 may cease to exist and it may live. It doesn't matter to UFC. Because the dream of Fox creating a big time sports network on cable is over. It will not happen during the four remaining years on the current contract, and that's all that should matter right now to UFC.
Fox will complain if UFC starts stacking pay-per-views again, but that's fine. Lead stories on Fox Sports Live have gotten UFC nothing. Headlines on FoxSports.com have got them nothing. Networks are supposed to grow sports. Not the other way around.
Stacking pay-per-views will not hurt Fightpass. In fact, it will probably help. Fightpass only draws the hardcore fans right now. Hardcore fans will stick around for cards stuffed with riff raff and UFC might cajole a few thousand or so semi-hardcore fans into buying Fightpass for the archives. At present, Fightpass archives are fun because pay-per-views used to be awesome. After a while, you run out of fun pay-per-views to watch. Make pay-per-views fun again (by stacking cards) and there'll surely be some folks on a budget who sign up in order to watch month-old shows for ten bucks.
UFC needs to realize what it's best at: big events for (relatively) little numbers of people. The nature of UFC will keep it from drawing golf's money or soccer's audience or tennis's aristocracy. That's fine. Handwringers may wring their hands at the specter of a diminished TV deal in 2018, but so what. Short term math (e.g. $75M in TV > $35M on PPV) is what took UFC from hot to cold. Stack those eight big pay-per-views, get us excited about the sport again and you'll be in charge of a stronger overall sport.
Fact or Fiction: UFC's pay-per-view decline will reverse itself this year
Fact.
Yes, there are fewer MMA fans than ever (at least since the boom). Yes, GSP is gone. Yes, Cain and Ronda are hurt. Yes, (about) 500k for Weidman/Ronda is unimpressive. But it's got to get better.
The first half of 2014 was about as ugly as it can get. UFC has had exactly one PPV main event in the marquee weight classes (Light Heavy and Heavy) this year, and it went head to head with LeBron and Kevin Durant in the playoffs. Ronda fought twice, which helped. Otherwise, it's been flyweights and bantamweights at the top of cards.
UFC fans have shown time and time again that (all charisma being equal) they prefer the big boys. Jones vs. Gus is coming. Cain vs. Werdum is coming. Weidman vs. Vitor might be coming. And Cormier vs. Jones might close out the year. Things will tick up on pay-per-view, at least a little.
Fact or Fiction: UFC will have a better 2015 than 2014
Fiction.
The problem is, they're still in a rut. UFC is not cool, and there's nothing cool on the horizon. Pop culture is pretty unforgiving and UFC is out. The Affliction types have been gone for a while, and now sports fans are finding it a grind.
Maybe the real question is, "will UFC get desperate?" Will they throw eight figures at GSP? Or let Chuck fight Chael? Or hold out marquee fighters from states with
Fact or Fiction: UFC would be better off running fewer shows
Fiction.
The major move that MMA hardcores want is fewer shows. They say that it's too hard to keep up. That it doesn't feel special. That skipping the little shows eventually leads to skipping the big shows. B.S., I say.
UFC's problem isn't that they run too many shows. It's that they are expanding in the wrong way. Fight fans are fine with UFC running fifty shows a year. Hell, they're fine with a hundred fifty shows a year. The key is to keep eight to ten shows stacked like they used to be.
International Fight Week (or whatever it's called now) was a perfect example of UFC's mismanaged booking. The top five fights of the week looked like this:
Weidman vs. Machinda
Ronda vs. Tomata Canne
Chael vs. NSAC
Faber vs. Bruce Leroy
Sad BJ vs. Frankie the Finisher
That is a hell of a pay-per-view card. I'd buy it, and I haven't bought a UFC show in God knows how long. UFC 176 could've been saved with Lawler and Brown and Cerrone and McGregor. Demetrius Johnson might've drawn if he had Munoz and Bendo on the undercard. (OK, maybe not. Mighty Mouse will never draw.)
Whatever matchmaking they're doing now isn't working, and it's time for a change. Choose eight cards. Stack them with four (Fox) or five (PPV) fights and then book the rest of the shows. I'm fine with a Fox Fightpass 1 card every Wednesday and Sunday night from here 'til oblivion. Do it. Just stop messing with the big shows and stack those cards.
Fact or Fiction: TV ratings will recover as Fox Sports 1 matures
Fiction.
And this is why UFC should stack PPVs. FS1 is dead. Fox is a proud company led by smart people, but they are also practical. They tried to do ESPN. They can't do ESPN. They're gonna quit trying to do ESPN some time soon.
Fox Sports 1 may cease to exist and it may live. It doesn't matter to UFC. Because the dream of Fox creating a big time sports network on cable is over. It will not happen during the four remaining years on the current contract, and that's all that should matter right now to UFC.
Fox will complain if UFC starts stacking pay-per-views again, but that's fine. Lead stories on Fox Sports Live have gotten UFC nothing. Headlines on FoxSports.com have got them nothing. Networks are supposed to grow sports. Not the other way around.
Stacking pay-per-views will not hurt Fightpass. In fact, it will probably help. Fightpass only draws the hardcore fans right now. Hardcore fans will stick around for cards stuffed with riff raff and UFC might cajole a few thousand or so semi-hardcore fans into buying Fightpass for the archives. At present, Fightpass archives are fun because pay-per-views used to be awesome. After a while, you run out of fun pay-per-views to watch. Make pay-per-views fun again (by stacking cards) and there'll surely be some folks on a budget who sign up in order to watch month-old shows for ten bucks.
UFC needs to realize what it's best at: big events for (relatively) little numbers of people. The nature of UFC will keep it from drawing golf's money or soccer's audience or tennis's aristocracy. That's fine. Handwringers may wring their hands at the specter of a diminished TV deal in 2018, but so what. Short term math (e.g. $75M in TV > $35M on PPV) is what took UFC from hot to cold. Stack those eight big pay-per-views, get us excited about the sport again and you'll be in charge of a stronger overall sport.
Comments
Post a Comment